Monday, June 27, 2011

2011 Ironman Florida Finish Time Estimates

Chip, Ken, Richard and I did the Gulf Coast Triathlon in May of this year.  Before the race I created a list of estimated race times for our wives.  My thoughts were that they would have the list to help them decide when one of us could finish a segment of the race and be in transition, and eventually when we could finish the race.  Of course, as the race wore on my estimates required some adjusting but, overall, they seemed to work well for the girls.  It helped the girls plan their day and allowed them to do their own thing during the time we all were out on the course.  Ironman Florida will do all that and more.  More time on the course, more time in transition, more time adjustments, and more chances for injury!

The mass start is at 7:00am.  All the times listed below reflect this start time.  For simplicity, I estimated 10 minutes for T1 and 5 minutes for T2.  To calculate the swim, bike, and run estimates I used the results from the Ironman Augusta 70.3 which we have all done, except Chad.  Chad's estimates come from his 2009 Rock N' Rollman Triathlon results.  In addition to the results from these half-iron distance races I used the results from their other triathlons and foot races.  Lastly, I followed the WAG principals for Wild Ass Guesses!

So, without any further ado, here are the breakdowns of my 2011 Ironman Florida estimates for our crew.

Swim (1 hr. 15 min.) 8:15am - T1 (10 min.) 8:25am
Bike (5 hrs. 26 min. – 20.6 mph pace) 1:51pm - T2 (5 min.) 1:56pm
Run (4 hrs. 10 min. – 9:32 pace) 6:06pm - Estimated finish time: 11 hours 06 minutes

Swim (1 hr. 20 min.) 8:20am - T1 (10 min.) 8:30am
Bike (5 hrs. 36 min. – 20 mph pace) 2:06pm - T2 (5 min.) 2:11pm
Run (4 hrs. 15 min. – 9:44 pace) 6:26pm - Estimated finish time: 11 hours 26 minutes

Swim (1 hr. 30 min.) 8:30am - T1 (10 min.) 8:40am
Bike (5 hrs. 50 min. – 19.2 mph pace) 2:30pm - T2 (5 min.) 2:35pm
Run (4 hrs. 50 min. – 11:04 pace) 7:25pm - Estimated finish time: 12 hours 25 minutes

Swim (1 hr. 35 min.) 8:35am - T1 (10 min.) 8:45am
Bike (5 hrs. 36 min. – 20 mph pace) 2:21pm - T2 (5 min.) 2:26pm
Run (5 hrs. 00 min. – 11:27 pace) 7:26pm - Estimated finish time: 12 hours 26 minutes

Swim (1 hr. 35 min.) 8:35am - T1 (10 min.) 8:45am
Bike (6 hrs. 13 min. – 18 mph pace) 2:58pm - T2 (5 min.) 3:03pm
Run (5 hrs. 30 min. – 11:04 pace) 8:33pm - Estimated finish time: 13 hours 33 minutes

After I estimated when each of us might finish the race I then had to see where we each might place in our age group.

2010 Ironman Florida Finishers
M30-34 - 1st place time 8:58 – Last place time 16:45 of 199 competitors – a 11:06 finish time is 61st place in A/G
M45-49 - 1st place time 9:26 – Last place time 16:59 of 283 competitors – a 12:25 finish time is 136th place in A/G
M50-54 - 1st place time 9:37 – Last place time 16:40 of 193 competitors – a 11:26 finish time is 32nd place in A/G

I won't be betting any money on who finishes when but I will bet that the girls will be happier not waiting for us on the sidelines for 12 hours in the hot sun until one of us finally finishes the race.  I hope this list minimizes their torment.

Thanks for reading!